MOGADISHU, Somalia – The security situation in Somalia has deteriorated sharply in mid-2025, with the militant group al-Shabaab making significant territorial gains and launching a series of high-profile attacks, underscoring the immense challenges facing the Somali government and its international allies.
In a major blow to government forces, al-Shabaab militants seized the strategic central town of Mahaas on July 27 after a coordinated assault involving suicide bombings. Mahaas, located in the Hiraan region, had been a government stronghold for over a decade, and its fall represents a significant setback in the long-running campaign to contain the insurgency. The capture is the latest success in al-Shabaab's "2025 Shabelle Offensive," a campaign launched in February aimed at encircling the capital, Mogadishu, and reclaiming lost territory. As part of this offensive, the group also captured the strategic town of Adan Yabaal on April 16.
The group's renewed strength follows a period of optimism in 2022, when a major clan-based uprising, backed by the Somali National Army and African Union forces, had successfully pushed the militants out of vast areas. However, analysts note that the government's failure to deliver on promises of improved security and services in these liberated territories created a vacuum, leading to local disenchantment and allowing al-Shabaab to re-establish its influence.
The violence has struck directly at the heart of the Somali state. On March 18, Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud survived an assassination attempt when a roadside bomb targeted his convoy near the presidential palace in Mogadishu. More recently, on July 9, an al-Shabaab suicide bomber attacked the Jaalle Siyaad military academy, one of the country's main training centers, killing at least five people, including military officials.
The conflict is not limited to the fight against al-Shabaab. In the northern region of Puntland, local forces, supported by airstrikes from the United States and the United Arab Emirates, are engaged in a protracted battle against an Islamic State affiliate. The intensity of this separate front is highlighted by the fact that the U.S. has conducted at least 32 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Somalia this year alone.
Compounding the nation's security woes are internal political divisions. Clashes have repeatedly broken out in the Gedo region between forces loyal to the Jubaland state and the Somali National Army, signaling escalating friction between the federal government and some of its member states.
In response to the growing crisis, African leaders at a recent summit in Kampala, Uganda, called for increased peacekeeping support for Somalia. Over 10,000 African Union troops are currently deployed, but the mission has been hampered by funding shortages and disagreements over troop contributions. Meanwhile, the Somali government continues to coordinate with international partners, including U.S. forces, to plan and execute operations aimed at countering the threats and preserving the country's sovereignty.
Despite these efforts, the situation remains precarious. With al-Shabaab on the offensive, a persistent Islamic State threat in the north, and ongoing internal strife, the path to stabilization in Somalia appears increasingly fraught with setbacks.