Norway heads to polls in tight election defined by wealth, oil, and EU ties

Norwegians are voting today, 8 september 2025, in a closely contested parliamentary election that will determine the country's direction on critical economic, energy, and foreign policy issues. The race pits the incumbent left-wing bloc, led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party, against a resurgent right-wing opposition. Projections indicate a nail-biting finish, with the final outcome shaping Norway's domestic priorities for the next four years.

Voters will elect all 169 members of the Storting, Norway's parliament, using a system of party-list proportional representation across 19 constituencies. While opinion polls in Norway are considered generally reliable, current projections show the left-wing bloc securing a slim majority of 88 seats, just three more than the 85 needed to govern. This represents a significant decline from the 100 seats the bloc won in the 2021 election. The right-wing bloc, led by the Progress Party and the Conservatives, is projected to win 81 seats, keeping the race highly competitive until the final votes are counted.

At the heart of the campaign is a contentious debate over Norway’s wealth tax. The Labour-led government advocates for preserving the tax, which levies up to 1.1% on net assets above 1.76 million kroner, arguing it is essential for funding public services and promoting equality. In contrast, right-wing parties are calling for its reduction or outright abolition, claiming it stifles entrepreneurship and drives capital out of the country. This economic debate is amplified by voter concerns over inflation and the management of Norway's massive $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.

Energy policy remains another major flashpoint. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Norway has solidified its role as a key energy supplier to Europe, reaffirming its commitment to oil and gas production. The Progress Party strongly supports continuing this policy, while environmental groups, including the Green Party, are pushing for a swift transition away from new fossil fuel exploration.

Beyond domestic issues, Norway’s relationship with the European Union is under increasing scrutiny. Prominent political figures, including Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide and opposition leader Ine Eriksen Søreide, have voiced concerns that remaining outside the EU leaves Norway at a disadvantage, lacking influence over critical trade and customs decisions. While both major parties support closer ties, deep-seated public opposition has made them cautious about proposing a new membership referendum.

This election also marks the implementation of significant legislative changes designed to improve the electoral process. The new laws establish an electoral complaint body, mandate better accommodations for voters with disabilities, and introduce revised vote-counting procedures for greater transparency. Preferential voting has been eliminated, and logistical arrangements are in place for citizens unable to vote at polling stations.

However, the campaign has not been without criticism. Commentators have noted that the interests of the High North region have been largely overlooked, with one news outlet suggesting the region's concerns were arrogantly dismissed.

As polling stations close, all eyes are on the preliminary results, which are expected on tuesday. Once a winner is declared, the focus will shift to coalition negotiations, which will ultimately determine the composition and priorities of the next Norwegian government.